I actually get a little bit upset when people look at the latest weather phenomenon to argue for or against climate change. Weather is not climate, and although weather is certainly influenced by climate, attribution remains a problem. The (statistical) likelihood that certain event will occur, or the severity and duration of those events, is certainly something that can be argued. Of course, that’s a statistical, scientific and nuanced argument, and it will not win you any imaginary points on the internet or on the I-can-be-louder-than-you medium that is modern sound-byte discourse.
That being said, the polar vortex, which brought plenty of cold air to much of the US last week, put the media in “stupid mode” (wonderful phrasing from Judith Curry). First, such blasts of arctic air are not new – there have been such polar vortices in the past (sorry, Rush). Secondly, these may be attributable to a decreased latitudinal temperature gradient (Francis et al. 2011) or may not be (Barnes 2013). I’m not an polar atmosphere dynamicist, and I’ve not dissected either paper, but it looks like there could be nice, healthy debate – Science! However, hearing people debate climate change on the basis of “it’s COLD outside!” can be infuriating. But, studies have shown that extreme weather can influence people’s perception of the weather. Interestingly, this effect is less in the UK than in the US – perhaps the media landscape has something to do with this? When a good visual and good sound byte is all you need to get some air play, a cold snap seems exactly what the doctor ordered to show up them egghead scientists – and I’ll just as quickly tell people to stop when they’re trying to fry an egg on sidewalk in August to prove global warming.
(Note: today was 6 degrees F above normal, and the last 5 days were even more anomalously warm! OH NO! [eye roll])
